Facing Uncertainties

That was stupid -- my last post in this blog. Not the content, but the way I wrote it! Later, even I could not follow my last post. Especially, the first paragraph is too difficult to follow. Looking back, I remember the urge I experienced to make that post difficult to read. I had the feeling, still I possess this feeling, that online writings like blogs are useless. They are worthless. They serve no particular purpose. Some argue that internet gives us the real democratic experience and help us show the power of the powerless and the downtrodden. But, unfortunately, I am increasingly feeling that this is untrue. Internet publishing helps us share our feeling. But whether it will serve humanity to direct itself towards some goal, political or economic or anything like that, is doubtful. The flow of information makes us more confused and unfocused. The previous blog manifested this feeling I was experiencing those days. Those feelings are only strengthened now. But I continue writing despite knowing its futility. And I write for no reason and no end. This may sound pessimistic, but right now this is what I feel.

In the last post, my main point was how an issue (Mullapperiyar dam controversy) was about to divide the people of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. One month is gone after I wrote that post. Now, we see those peoples divided! Violence broke out between the peoples and, admittedly, was more intense on the Tamil Nadu side than on the other side. We saw how a small group of people exploited the opportunity for gaining narrow political ends. Moreover, the issue remains unsolved.

The Mullapperiyar dam issue is actually an engineering problem, which has but now become a social problem (I mean people's problem). It is taken to a state where engineers alone cannot solve it amicably. The question of whether the dam will collapse and, if yes, under what conditions, does not have any definite answer. Any answer will finally boil down to probability and reliability. The aim of science and engineering should be to reduce the probability of disaster as small as possible, thereby making the reliability of the construction as large as possible. How reliable is the dam is therefore can be answered only by engineers in statistical terms. The problem becomes social because people, the laymen, are unable to understand and accept the statistical promises. Such problems cannot be only resolved by engineers. The role of powerful statesmen with long term vision becomes important and apparent at this s juncture. It is doubtful whether we still have such leaders. This doubt arises by observing the way the issue is being approached by our leaders.

Related is the issue of Koodamkulam nuclear power plant. Is it safe? Is nuclear energy safe for humanity? Even scientists are divided on this issue. So are the politicians. The answer again boils down to be a statistical one. Again, the probability of failure of the measures taken by the scientists and engineers to make the power plant safe against natural calamities like earthquake, tsunamis and cyclones dictates the answer. If our calculation fails? This may be an emotional question. Perhaps, I am just being over cautious. But am I not over cautious about the very existence of the human race? Am I not justifiable on this ground in asking this question?

Perhaps, we have no answers. Perhaps, there is no way to arrive at a definite answer. Perhaps, uncertainty rules everywhere. But we must find some resolution to face such uncertainties, and our resolution must be based on facts and reason. That is all I have to say.

Regarding violence: a few perverts can cause a large violence, but restoration of peace would need efforts of large number of lofty minds.

Some say that if Kerala and Tamil Nadu were two countries, a war would have broken out by this time. This argument leads me to a more terrible thought: China is building a dam in Brahmaputra, which is supposed to finish by the year 2015. Will they divert water from Brahmaputra to China? What would be the outcome? Are we facing a war?

P.S.: I am not able to sleep calmly these days!

Sandeep

Dec 29, 2011.